Postflop concepts – Evaluating outs

What’s an out?

An « out » is basically a card that saves your ass! For example, if you have 9T, your opponent has AA and the flop is A67, any one of the four 8’s are an out (so you have 4 outs). When you know you hands most probably needs to improve to win and your opponent bets, unless the decision is really obvious, evaluating outs is the first step in taking your decision.

Now that last example was an easy one, but when you play, you don’t get to know what cards your opponent has, you will have to guess. But hey, let’s start easy at first! The best way to learn to count outs is with lots of examples, so here we go:

Unless specified otherwise, consider there are no possible flush

AK vs 9T flop 28T

Your AK now has to make a pair to win, you have 6 outs, the 3 remaining Aces and the 3 remaining Kings. When counting outs, you do not take scenarios that require 2 cards like QJ who would give the straight, these scenarios won’t affect much your chances of winning, plus your opponent will also often have his own improbable scenarios that make him win. The only thing you want to know is, when the next card comes in, how many of those cards in the deck make my hand better than his.

89 vs AA flop TJ2

Right now, you have an open ended straight draw, any of the 7’s or Q’s gives you the best hand (and a sure victory). You now have 8 outs out of the 45 unknown cards. If the pot is 10$ and the other guy bets 1$, you sure have to call, but if he bets 8$, you have to fold!

89 vs AK flop 56Q

Now we start talking about some outs! Your opponent have Ace high, if you get an 8, a 9 or a 7, you have the best hand. Three 8’s left, three 9’s left and four 7’s left, that’s 10 outs!

89 vs AK flop 67Q

Even more serious outs, it’s like the last hand, but with an open ended straight draw instead of a simple straight draw. You still have the three 8’s, the three 9’s, but for the straight, you have the four 5’s and the four T’s. That’s a big total of 14 outs! With 14 outs, your odds of winning the pots are getting close to 50%. In this particular case, you have 49% chances of winning even though your hands needs to improve to win.

8h9h vs AcKd flop 6h7hQs

With all this means is 8 and 9 of hearts vs Ace of club and King of diamond. Flop is 6-7 of heart and queen of spades. Now, you have the powerful open ended straight flush draw against Ace high. With an open ended straight flush draw, you have 6 cards that gives you a straight, 7 cards that gives you a flush and 2 cards that gives you a straight flush! Now, since our opponent have ace high, you also have 6 outs to get 1 pair, a big total of 21 outs. With 21 outs, even though your opponent has the best hand right now, your odds of winning the pot are better than his! You have a nice 70% chances of winning in this particular example. But the thing is, you will most probably never ever know that you have 21 outs because you don’t see your opponent’s cards, he might have AQ… you lose 6 outs if he does.

AK vs 68 flop 68K

Now that one is a bit different… Right now, you have 5 outs, the three Ace’s left and the two kings. But if the turn doesn’t help anyone, you’ve just got 3 more outs for the river! Why? Lets say the turn is a 2, now the three last 2’s are outs for the river (that would give you 2 pairs KK-22 vs 2 pairs 88-66).

AA vs 68 flop 68K

That’s the exact same as last hand, same number of outs. Right now, two Ace’s and 3 kings and if the turn doesn’t help anyone, 3 more outs for the river.

AA vs 66 flop 26Q

A set, now that’s a great hand. Right now, our AA has only 2 outs, the 2 remaining Ace’s in the deck!

KT vs QQ flop KQT

A set vs 2 pairs, but 1 pair over the set and 1 pair under. That’s not many outs, the three kings left gives us a better full (KKKTT vs QQQKK), but the three 10’s gives an under full house (TTTKK vs QQQTT). So we only have 3 outs.

Now, let’s make this a little bit more interesting shall we!

QJ vs ?? flop TJA

Your opponent raised preflop and you played the hand because you have better position. Your opponent now bets half the pot on the flop. Best case scenario, he has 77, 88 or 99, but there’s far more chances he has 2 big cards… So now, you have to make approximations. Chances he has 77, 88 or 99 are low and chances of the opposite scenario where you are in real bad shape are similar (if he flopped a set or 2 pairs). So I would tend to say the AK-AQ would be good hands to make an approximation of your outs. If he has AK, your ass is saved on the turn by one of the two Jack’s left, one of the three Queen’s left or on of the three Kings, that’s 8 outs. If he has AQ, you are saved by one of the two Jack’s or one of the three Kings, so that’s 5 outs. Since you have a queen, chances are higher he has AK than AQ, so I would say 7 outs is a good guess! Now we start to think like real poker players If you have a hard time with this example, don’t worry, it’s most probably simply because you need some more experience. Poker is not only about theory, it’s also about practice! Don’t hesitate to practice playing some more and then come back here to read some more!

Still want some more?

Here we go, you raised preflop with AhKh, big blinds call you, flop comes 2h6h9c and your opponent bets.

Now is a hard to guess situation… Your opponent is on the big blind, many weak players will feel almost forced to see a flop on the big blind because they already have 1 big blind invested. If you haven’t had time to notice how he plays, 3 low cards hits the board and he bets, you can assume he has most probably hit 1 pair. Sometime, he will have 2 pairs or a set, but sometime, he will only bluff since he’s sure that you haven’t hit this board. So, let’s assume it’s 1 pair, this sounds like a good guess. You can be saved by one of the three Aces, one of the three Kings or getting your flush, that’s 15 outs! What should you do? Well, you most probably should reraise him. Against a pair, your odds of winning the pot are better than his! Also, if you reraise him, if his pair is not top pair (9), he will most probably fold and give you the pot right there!

Want a more complete example? Here you go! You have 99 on the dealer button in a no limit 1$-2$ game, everyone folds to you. You raise to 8$, small blind folds, big blinds calls and the flop comes 89T. The pot is now 17$, your opponent bets 10$, you raise to 30$ and he goes all in for 120$. Since you cover him, it would cost you 90$ to call and possibly win the actual pot of 167$. Let’s start by evaluating outs! What hands can the other guy have?

Of course, the straight: if he has 67, 7J or QJ, he is having a straight and we need our set to improve in a full to win (or a lucky quad)! How many outs do we have in this scenario? We have the three 8’s, the three Ten’s and the last 9. That’s 7 outs. But if we don’t get it on the turn, we get 3 more outs for the river (if the turn and river makes a pair). Since we have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river, let’s say it’s 8,5 outs.

He could have a pair and an open ended straight draw with either 77 or JJ. In this scenario, we are really ahead because he needs to get his straight to win and we can still get a full house.

He could have 2 pairs or an overpair (AA, KK, QQ, 89, 8T, 9T). In this case, we are even more ahead!

Let’s start by looking at the worst case scenario, our 8.5 outs. 8.5 outs is 35% chances of winning the pot, it cost 90$ to have 35% chances of winning 167$... 35% of 167$ is 58.50$, you’re basically losing on average 31.50$ a hand in this scenario. Since in the worst case scenario, it’s not worth it, we have to push our analysis a bit further.

The next step is to “evaluate” the odds that this guy has the straight. With QJ, he most probably would’nt have pushed all in because he does want us to fold, but he could have done it with J7 or especially with 67 (67 is so dangerous, easy over straight if turn comes 7, J or Q). We have no choice but to start making approximations, mine would be 60% chances he already has the straight. So, we now know 60% of the time, we lose on average 31.50$ a hand. Assuming that in the other scenarios, we win 80% of the time, 80% of the time, we win 167$, 20% of the time, we lose 90$ more, that’s an average profit of 155.50$ ( ((167$ * 80 times) – (90$ * 20 times)) / 100).

60% of the time, we lose on average 31.50$ and 40% of the time, we win on average 155.50$, no need to do the math, it’s obvious we have to call and pray he doesn’t have the straight. And if he does, scream “pair up the board”!!!

Now, the most important thing! You want to know what are your odds of winning with a certain amount of outs, here’s a good approximation: with 1 card to come (on the turn), 2% per out. With 2 cards to come (on the flop), 4% per out. It’s not exact, but it’s close.